In the last weekly review I had mentioned, “This week was an interesting one and now we have the confirmation that the bulls are back on track”.
This view was found correct as the indices were on a roll this week. The Nifty gained 61.50 points (1.37%) on weekly basis. Except for a minor correction of 15.40 points on Tuesday the index closed positive on all four remaining days. But the major rally was witnessed on Thursday as the index soared by 62.55 points. On Monday, Wednesday and Friday Nifty remained almost flat with gains of 7.60, 2.80 and 3.95 points respectively. The Nifty closed at 4566.
On Tuesday and Wednesday there were two candlesticks with ‘doji’ bodies. In my earlier article “Candlestick patterns in Indian stock markets” we discussed about single and multiple candlestick patterns and their use. A doji represents indecision among traders. ‘Doji’ candle’s open and close prices are same (or nearly the same). But the real body should be almost in the middle of the candlestick range. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s candlesticks though, had a “doji” body meaning open and close were almost the same. But on Tuesday the real body was found below the middle of the candlestick range. On Wednesday it was above the midpoint. The long upper shadow on Tuesday indicated a sell off; it was reflected in Wednesday’s trade for the first 4 hours. During the last hour of trade the bulls had managed to close positive, though the gain was a meagre one. This is seen from the long lower shadow of the candlestick on Wednesday. In other words the bears tried to push the market down on Wednesday; but the bulls managed to push the index up. As a result we saw a rally on Thursday.
But that was a short lived one. Today Nifty has once again formed a ‘doji’ body with a long upper shadow similar to that of Tuesday, signifying selling pressure. Both daily and intra day chart of nifty are shown below. Today’s trading session has been a weak one, though with a small gain. The day, though opening higher, formed lower highs and lower lows continuously. The last hour of trade witnessed sell off as indicated on the chart. This means that the market is witnessing profit booking at higher levels. Going by this chart, we may see further corrections next week. But those corrections will be good for the index and the overall market.
Daily chart of Nifty
Intraday chart of Nifty on 20-Jul-07
(Courtesy: NSE)
However, we still maintain our bullish view on medium and long term trends on the index.
Several index stocks are at a life time high. These include Bharti Airtel, Gas Authority of India, Grasim, Indian Petrochemicals Corporation, Larsen & Toubro, Reliance Communications and Reliance Industries. Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are bearish in short term charts.
The India Street analyzed Omaxe IPO. Today the issue got closed at 1700 IST. Following details are available now.
| Total Issue Size | 17796520 |
| Total Bids Received | 1197281780 |
| Total Bids Received at Cut-off Price | 51889820 |
| No. of times issue is subscribed | 67.28 |
As of yesterday, the qualified institutional buyers had oversubscribed by 8.59 times, non institutional investors by 3.26 times, retail investors 1.17 times and employees of the company by 0.95 times. These figures will change today.
Top gainers and losers among index stocks:
| Scrip | % Gain | Scrip | % Loss |
| RELIANCE | 6.72 | SIEMENS | 9.08 |
| BAJAJAUTO | 6.45 | CIPLA | 5.15 |
| IPCL | 6.15 | ABB | 4.72 |
| GUJAMBCEM | 5.70 | BPCL | 3.82 |
| RCOM | 5.22 | SUNPHARMA | 3.54 |
Top gainers and losers in overall market:
| Scrip | % Gain | Scrip | % Loss |
| ZEENEWS | 61.82 | BSL | 17.26 |
| PTC | 33.52 | COLORCHIPS | 16.73 |
| KOTHARIPRO | 30.23 | NDTV | 15.86 |
| CELEBRITY | 25.49 | HEXAWARE | 15.13 |
| NIPPOBATRY | 24.96 | INFOTECENT | 14.76 |
We discussed about Celebrity Fashions in my earlier article, “The Top 5 Bullish Stocks for this Week”.
We have analyzed 20 stocks for short term, 10 stocks for medium term and 5 stocks for long term investment. The following tables show the status of these stocks as of today. (Please note that ‘Initial’ refers to close price on date of analysis, Highest refers to the highest close price after the analysis date, % gain is calculated based on these two prices.)
Short term picks
Analysis date: 29-Jun-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| GOKEX | 242.60 | 259.20 | 6.84 |
| HCC | 123.20 | 132.00 | 7.14 |
| OPTOCIRCUI | 385.10 | 469.85 | 22.01 |
| ORBITCORP | 272.70 | 355.65 | 30.42 |
| SOUTHBANK | 127.50 | 152.55 | 19.65 |
Analysis date: 05-Jul-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| EVERESTIND | 123.95 | 123.95 | 0.00 |
| INDIANB | 141.05 | 163.70 | 16.06 |
| POLYPLEX | 144.60 | 154.20 | 6.64 |
| SINTEX | 259.65 | 289.75 | 11.59 |
| SRF | 175.75 | 176.10 | 0.20 |
Analysis date: 12-Jul-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| ARVINDMILL | 48.50 | 51.30 | 5.77 |
| GNFC | 124.90 | 137.30 | 9.93 |
| PARSVNATH | 394.00 | 394.00 | 0.00 |
| PFC | 169.30 | 195.65 | 15.56 |
| TATAMETALI | 147.95 | 147.95 | 0.00 |
Analysis date: 18-Jul-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| CELEBRITY | 76.80 | 89.00 | 15.89 |
| GALLANTT | 13.10 | 13.10 | 0.00 |
| INDIAGLYCO | 164.20 | 164.45 | 0.15 |
| KTKBANK | 196.05 | 196.05 | 0.00 |
| USHAMART | 280.00 | 289.90 | 3.54 |
Medium term picks:
Analysis Date: 02-Jul-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| ADANIENT | 270.70 | 320.75 | 18.49 |
| GODREJIND | 214.65 | 220.55 | 2.75 |
| HIKAL | 491.75 | 566.95 | 15.29 |
| TINPLATE | 60.80 | 60.80 | 0.00 |
| XLTL | 138.75 | 140.05 | 0.94 |
Analysis Date: 16-Jul-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| COSMOFILMS | 99.85 | 102.70 | 2.85 |
| HEG | 224.65 | 237.90 | 5.90 |
| KIRLOSOIL | 347.65 | 357.40 | 2.80 |
| ROHITFERRO | 39.50 | 39.50 | 0.00 |
| ZEEL | 335.80 | 335.80 | 0.00 |
Long term picks:
Analysis Date: 02-Jul-07
| Scrip | Initial | Highest | % gain |
| DENABANK | 49.75 | 56.95 | 14.47 |
| GTL | 222.60 | 231.75 | 4.11 |
| GVKPIL | 496.95 | 579.35 | 16.58 |
| RPL | 114.35 | 117.90 | 3.10 |
| SREINTFIN | 92.20 | 107.45 | 16.54 |