Thursday, September 20, 2007

Avoid the Deccan Chronicle and these other 4 Stocks

Now that the Sensex has crossed 16000 many investors and traders feel extremely buoyant and would like to find investment or trading opportunities. The India Street attempts to find 5 stocks that are bearish for short term.

Summary:

Scrip

Group

Scrip Code

Price 19-Sep

Deccan Chronicle

B1

532608

210.50

MindTree Consulting

B1

532819

551.40

Shah Alloys

B1

513436

63.70

Taj GVK Hotels

B1

532390

136.45

Wire & Wireless India

B1

532795

48.80

Deccan Chronicle Holdings Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532608):

The company publishes Deccan Chronicle, a leading English daily in Andhra Pradesh. It is also published from Chennai. The total certified circulation is about 0.9 million copies. Andhra Bhoomi is the Telugu newspaper published by the company. The net profits for the year 2006 – 07 were worth Rs.162 crores.

In the daily chart, a bearish “Triple Top” formation could be observed. At the resistance levels, a bearish “Three Outside Down” candlestick pattern has also been formed. Following these two patterns, a heavy sell off occurred in the stock on September 14. In the process, the stock had broken its short term support at 205.75. Any rally in the stock should be used to exit the holdings. The next major support for the stock is at 140.

MindTree Consulting Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532819):

MindTree is a Bangalore based IT services company. It has presence in US, UK, Japan, Germany, Singapore, Sweden, UAE and Australia. The services include supply chain management, data warehousing, enterprise resource planning, web services, infrastructure management etc. and the industries served by these are financial services, transportation, capital markets and manufacturing. It declared a net profit of Rs.90 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07. MindTree came out with an IPO earlier this year and the offer price was Rs.425.

MindTree got listed on March 7 this year and it opened with a premium of 202 at 627. On March 15 it touched a high of 1023. But it has been on a continuous downtrend since then. On August 6 it closed below its previous low of 576. The stock gained marginally and went upto a high of 614; but it has once again gone below 576. The low at 520.35 was broken on September 10. The volumes are also subdued and there is nothing this stock can offer for the short term investors.

Shah Alloys Limited (Group B1, Scrip Code: 513436):

Shah Alloys manufactures various grades of stainless steels (utensil, austenitic/martensitic), stainless steel plates/hot rolled coils, stainless steel bars/wires/angles/flats etc. The production capacity of the facility is about 200,000 tonnes per year. The company has a market share of more than 20%. Its net profits for the last 4 financial years i.e. from 2003 – 04 were 33, 44, 33 and 39 crore rupees.

The stock however, has lost more than 75% since May last year, when it recorded a high of 250. In the above chart, the support at 74.50 was broken on August 1. It got some buying support afterwards. But its new low of 61 got broken on September 14 and the stock closed at 60.10. The stock looks very bearish in medium term charts too and it is not advisible to enter long positions for short term.

Incidentally some of the other metal stocks like Tata Sponge, Ispat Industries, Sunflag Iron and Gallant Metals have gained reasonably well in the recent past. The crowd has turned a blind eye towards Shah Alloys.

Taj GVK Hotels and Resorts Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532390):

Taj GVK Hotels and Resorts is a joint venture between Indian Hotels (a Tata group company) and GVK group. Indian Hotels has 25.5% stake and GVK group has about 35% stake. Taj GVK owns three 5 star hotels in Hyderabad (Taj Krishna, Taj Banjara and Taj Residency) having total of 575 rooms. It declared a net profit of Rs.64.3 crores for the financial year 2006 – 07.

This stock too, has lost more than 60% from its May 2006 high of 341.90. It broke the support at 149 on August 17. It has not bounced back. When many stocks were trading in green yesterday, this stock lost about 1.37% with increased volume, indicating a sell off. This stock is bearish for short term; it created a new low yesterday by breaking the 136.25 made on August 22.

Wire and Wireless India Limited (Group: B1, Scrip Code: 532795):

Wire and Wireless India Limited is a part of the Essel group having presence in 43 cities. It has interests in media programming, broadcast and distribution, specialty packaging, entertainment, telecom and trading. WWIL provides video on demand, pay per view, Electronic Program Guide (EPG), live gaming through a Set Top Box (STB), etc. It declared a net loss of Rs.20 crore for the quarter ended June 2007.

This stock is just for the bears, as can be seen from the above chart. It never really had an uptrend after it got listed at the beginning of this year. It broke the support at 54.50 on August 17 and continues to trade below it. The stock looks extremely bearish for the short term and it will be a while before the crowd shows some interest.