Monday, October 1, 2007

5 India stocks to avoid (Long term perspective)

In my previous article, “Candlestick Patterns in Indian stock markets” we discussed about bullish and bearish candlestick patterns and their use in identifying trend reversals. Candlesticks may also be used to identify continuation patterns. In this article let us analyze 5 India stocks that have turned bearish for long term. The discussion is based on monthly charts.

Summary:

Scrip

Group

Scrip Code

Price 28-Sep

AUROPHARMA

A

524804

601.25

CHOLADBS

B1

511243

160.85

GUJFLUORO

B1

500173

594.90

I-FLEX

A

532466

1895.00

KSBPUMPS

B1

500249

489.90

Aurobindo Pharma Limited:

Aurobindo Pharma is one of the largest manufacturers of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) in Asia.

Its product range of API’s include antibiotics, antiviral drugs, central nervous system depressants, cardio vascular drugs, antiallergics and gastroenterological drugs. It also produces some organic intermediates as well. The company’s net profits were worth Rs.62 crores for the first quarter ended June 2007.

In the chart shown above, a bearish engulfing pattern was formed in May 2006. However, it could not be confirmed by a negative close, though a red candle was seen next month. In July 2007, a similar pattern was formed; but the next month witnessed a red candle with a lower close. This confirms the long term trend reversal. Long term investors need to exit this stock at every opportunity. The next support for the stock exists at 467.

Cholamandalam DBS Finance Limited:

Cholamandalam DBS Finance Limited is a joint venture between Murugappa Group and DBS Bank of Singapore and is one of India's largest domestically owned Non Banking Finance Companies. It offers personal loans, vehicle finance, corporate finance, capital market finance and home equity loans. The group also has mutual funds (both equity and debt) and it offers wealth management solutions, insurance advisory services and investment management solutions.

Its subsidiaries are DBS Cholamandalam Distribution Limited, DBS Cholamandalam Asset Management Company Limited and DBS Cholamandalam Securities Limited. The company declared a net profit of Rs.8.36 crores for the first quarter ended June 2007.

In this chart, we can see three reversal patterns i.e. three outside down pattern that occurred in May 2006 and also three inside down pattern this month. Interesting to note that the stock broke its support at 101.70 in March 2007 and formed a “three outside up pattern”. But after this, the stock could not break the previous resistance at 243 and a three inside down pattern has been formed. The next strong support for the stock is at 97.20.

Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited:

This Vadodara based company manufactures chlorofluorocarbons (CFC 11 and CFC12) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons. Commonly known as R 11, R 12 and

R-22, these are widely used as refrigerants. The other products include anhydrous hydrochloric acid, caustic soda, chlorine and chloromethane. It also generates power. Inox Leisure Limited, a subsidiary of GFL, operates multiplex cinema theatres in various cities across India. It reported a net profit of Rs.54 crores for the first quarter ended June 2007.

In the above chart, we can see three candlestick reversal patterns marked 1, 2 and 3. However, their effectiveness and reliability varies. We may even consider this similar to a triple top, but such formations may occur over a more reasonable period of time. First and second are three outside down patterns; third one is three inside down pattern. In the first two, the shadows are not engulfed; this gives a lesser degree of effectiveness. The next supports for the stock are 524.55 and 329.90.

I-Flex Solutions Limited:

I-Flex Solutions Limited provides IT solutions to financial services industry.

The company has developed FlexCube, a banking solution catering to the needs of retail, corporate, core, investment banking, internet banking and asset management. It also has Daybreak, Reveleus, Castek and Mantas which are utilized for risk management, productivity, personal and corporate insurance. The company’s net profits for the first quarter ending June 2007 stood at Rs.58.2 crores. A bearish “three outside down” pattern has been formed in the long term chart of I-Flex. Support exists at 1457; A monthly close below this may target 832.

KSB Pumps Limited:

KSB Pumps manufactures pumps, valves and systems that are used for fresh water extraction, treatment, transport and usage, sewage, industrial effluents and municipal waste water treatment, various industries like chemical, petrochemical, food processing, steel, oil, gas, power plants etc. The company reported a net profit of Rs.8 crores for the first quarter ended June 2007.

In the above chart, the stock has made a higher high but the slow stochastics indicator has made a lower high. Thus, a negative divergence is observed, which is confirmed by a three inside down candlestick pattern during February 2007. Support for the stock will be around 357.