In my previous article, Psychology of investing and trading we classified the investors as short term, medium term and long term. Since July 2007, we picked several stocks for short, medium and long term investment. We have also pointed out that some stocks are bearish. Let us now review these stocks.
Though the “short term” investors may hold the stocks for few days to few weeks, the ultimate duration depends on their profit margin, risk profile etc. However, a holding time of 21 sessions i.e. one calender month can be considered “short term”.
The India Street short term picks and their highest returns (on close basis) are given in the following table. Due to space constraints only scrip code, close price on date of analysis, highest close price and percentage returns are given.
1. 5 India Stocks You Need to Own in the Short Term
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| GOKEX | 236.65 | 259.20 | 9.53 |
| HCC | 119.15 | 139.95 | 17.46 |
| ORBITCORP | 281.05 | 355.65 | 26.54 |
| OPTOCIRCUI | 376.65 | 489.45 | 29.95 |
| SOUTHBANK | 121.05 | 159.70 | 31.93 |
2. 5 India Stocks You Need to Own Now
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| EVERESTIND | 123.95 | - | - |
| INDIANB | 141.05 | 163.70 | 16.06 |
| POLYPLEX | 144.60 | 173.90 | 20.26 |
| SINTEX | 259.65 | 299.70 | 15.42 |
| SRF | 175.75 | - | - |
3. These 5 India Stocks Set to Move Up in the Short Term
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| ARVINDMILL | 50.45 | 51.30 | 1.68 |
| GNFC | 124.90 | 139.85 | 11.97 |
| PFC | 169.30 | 195.65 | 15.56 |
| PARSVNATH | 394.00 | - | - |
| TATAMETALI | 147.95 | - | - |
Tata Metaliks closed at 180.30 on October 10 and Arvind Mill closed at 74.30 on October 25.
4. The Top 5 Bullish Stocks for this Week
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| CELEBRITY | 76.80 | 89.00 | 15.89 |
| GALLANTT | 13.50 | 13.95 | 3.33 |
| INDIAGLYCO | 167.55 | 184.80 | 10.30 |
| KTKBANK | 197.55 | - | - |
| USHAMART | 56.55 | - | - |
Karnataka Bank closed at 245.05 on October 3, Usha Martin closed at 85 on October 16 and Gallantt Metals closed at 19.25 on October 25.
5. 5 Reasons to Remain Bullish on India Stocks in the Short Term
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| MRPL | 44.35 | - | - |
| NEYVELILIG | 80.70 | 85.20 | 5.58 |
| RCF | 50.55 | - | - |
| TATASPONGE | 130.75 | - | - |
| VARUNSHIP | 67.40 | - | - |
These stocks were bullish just prior to US Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis. The highest close values after that crisis are given below. Tata Sponge, MRPL and Neyveli Lignite performed exceptionally well.
| Scrip | Date | Close | % return |
| MRPL | 26/09/07 | 74.30 | 67.53 |
| NEYVELILIG | 25/10/07 | 129.45 | 60.41 |
| RCF | 26/09/07 | 61.60 | 21.86 |
| TATASPONGE | 17/10/07 | 254.75 | 94.84 |
| VARUNSHIP | 16/10/07 | 76.35 | 13.28 |
6. Buy these 5 Stocks before the run up
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| BOMDYEING | 542.45 | 697.15 | 28.52 |
| GTLINFRA | 34.30 | 40.60 | 18.37 |
| KOTAKBANK | 699.35 | 922.20 | 31.87 |
| SCI | 178.85 | 221.70 | 23.96 |
| SUNILHITEC | 204.70 | 259.45 | 26.75 |
These short term picks were based on candlestick patterns.
7. The 5 Next Biggest Stocks in India
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| BHAGWATIHO | 40.95 | 47.00 | 14.77 |
| BOC | 147.80 | 154.45 | 4.45 |
| DENORA | 132.10 | 140.60 | 6.43 |
| FDC | 32.45 | 33.70 | 3.85 |
| TVSMOTOR | 70.35 | - | - |
It can be seen that out of 35 stocks discussed, the ‘true’ failures are Everest Industries, SRF, Parsvnath and TVS Motors. There is nothing technically wrong with these stocks. Investors with a little more patience (holding the stock for more than one month) might have gained better in other stocks.That said, we have a success rate of 89% in our short term picks during last four months.
We once again reiterate that technical analysis is all about probabilities; there are no certainties. No one can clearly predict which stock will rally on a given day. The best thing an investor can do in case of a failure is to accept it and get out of the stock. This should be used as a learning experience.
Medium Term Picks:
1. 5 India Stocks You Should Own for the Next 6 Months
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| ADANIENT | 274.30 | 787.55 | 187.11 |
| GODREJIND | 204.40 | - | - |
| HIKAL | 489.20 | 566.95 | 15.89 |
| TINPLATE | 62.40 | - | - |
| XLTL | 134.25 | 225.95 | 68.31 |
Godrej Industries has a strong support at 140. It has formed a “harami” candlestick pattern last week. Hopefully, it should be able to bounce back from the current levels. Tin Plate has support at 41.30 and 40.10. The stock should reverse at these levels.
2. Buy These India Stocks and Hold for 6 Months
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| COSMOFILMS | 99.80 | - | - |
| HEG | 213.70 | 274.55 | 28.47 |
| KIRLOSOIL * | 174.38 | - | - |
| ROHITFERRO | 40.60 | 53.10 | 30.79 |
| ZEEL | 342.90 | - | - |
* Adjusted close. Kirloskar Oil and ZEEL have lost marginally while Cosmo Films has just bounced back from support levels.
3. If you’re an Investor, Our India Stock Picks will add to your Net Worth
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| ISPATIND | 18.80 | 32.00 | 70.21 |
| JINDALPHOT | 122.05 | 169.75 | 39.08 |
| RANBAXY | 409.25 | 442.35 | 8.09 |
| TODAYS | 75.95 | 97.20 | 27.98 |
| VENKEYS | 171.60 | 195.85 | 14.13 |
4. Top Five All-Around Value Stocks
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| INDRAMEDCO | 39.65 | 40.85 | 3.03 |
| INDUSINDBK | 65.90 | 84.85 | 28.76 |
| NAVNETPUB | 77.80 | 90.40 | 16.20 |
| SABERORGAN | 17.55 | 19.95 | 13.68 |
| ZUARIAGRO | 275.25 | 292.65 | 6.32 |
5. There’s Something about These Five Stocks
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| BASML | 96.60 | 120.10 | 24.33 |
| CAIRN | 178.30 | 204.65 | 14.78 |
| IL&FS | 220.55 | 336.35 | 52.50 |
| LLOYDSTEEL | 13.15 | 16.10 | 22.43 |
| PENINLAND | 119.25 | 138.55 | 16.18 |
It should be remembered here that one may hold the stock upto six months for investment. So, some more time can be given for those stocks that haven’t rallied yet. Out of the 25 stocks that we discussed, 20 have closed higher. This gives us a success rate of 80%.
Long Term Picks:
1. 5 Great Long Term India Stock Buys
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| DENABANK | 46.75 | 69.00 | 47.59 |
| GTL | 225.55 | 265.55 | 17.73 |
| GVKPIL | 486.55 | 767.15 | 57.67 |
| RPL | 111.10 | 191.15 | 72.05 |
| SREINTFIN | 89.50 | 138.80 | 55.08 |
2. 5 Reasons to be Bullish in the Long Run
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| HITACHIHOM | 135.55 | - | - |
| NAGARFERT | 23.45 | 64.25 | 173.99 |
| PSL | 339.90 | 398.60 | 17.27 |
| PTC | 86.65 | 106.20 | 22.56 |
| UNIONBANK | 155.90 | 173.90 | 11.55 |
3. Buy These 5 Stocks and Forget about them
| Scrip | Close | Highestclose | % return |
| CHAMBALFERT | 49.80 | 58.35 | 17.17 |
| GITANJALI | 292.10 | 379.50 | 29.92 |
| HONDAPOWER | 241.30 | 259.15 | 7.40 |
| MALUPAPER | 44.90 | 57.55 | 28.17 |
| MSPL | 25.50 | 40.30 | 58.04 |
Except for HITACHIHOM, all the other stocks have gained reasonably well. This leads to a success rate of 93% as for as long term picks are concerned.
Conclusion:
This is an eye opener for all those who are skeptical about technical analysis. Of the 75 stocks that we have discussed so far, only 10 have closed lower. So our overall success percentage is 87%.
In future, we shall try to continue and improve this success story. We also thank all those who sent their feedback.
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